Cannabis industry analysts at BDSA suggest that global cannabis sales this year will reach more than $35 billion, representing a 22% increase over the $29 billion in sales last year. The firm also forecasts global cannabis sales will surpass $61 billion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 16%.
“Though most legal cannabis markets saw sales soften in the second half of 2021, the global cannabis market is expected to see brisk growth in 2022, driven by strong sales in new and emerging markets in the U.S., steady growth in Canada and international markets lead by Mexico and Germany.” – Jessica Lukas, BDSA chief commercial officer, in a press release
According to BDSA, legal cannabis sales in the U.S. will surpass $28 billion this year, representing growth of approximately 20% over 2021’s $24 billion and BDSA forecasts U.S. sales to reach $46 billion in 2026 – a CAGR of approximately 14% from 2021. The report names California as the “largest contributor” to overall U.S. cannabis sales growth over the next four years, while anticipating New York and New Jersey – which have yet to launch adult-use sales – Florida, which has not yet legalized cannabis for adults, and Michigan will round out the top five.
According to the BDSA report, cannabis sales in Canada, which legalized cannabis for adults in 2018, reached $3.8 billion last year and the firm estimates sales will climb to $4.7 billion this year and nearly $6.3 billion by 2026, a CAGR of 11% from 2021. BDSA forecasts that Ontario would “spearhead” Canada’s growth, growing over $1.3 billion by 2025, while British Columbia would add $420 million to total sales by 2026.
Sales of legal cannabis products, including cannabis-derived pharmaceuticals, outside the U.S. and Canada were estimated at $1.4 billion in spending for 2021 and are forecast to grow to $2.2 billion in 2022, according to BDSA. International sales, the company estimates, are expected to reach $9.5 billion by 2026, a CAGR of approximately 46% from 2021. BDSA suggests that the majority of that new spending will be driven by Germany and Mexico, with France and the U.K. also contributing significantly.
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